Nth symptom of exhaustion in the real estate market in a short space of time. The price of second-hand housing has registered a fall in quarterly terms and in a generalized way, being the largest quarterly decline since 2016. The data published by Fotocasa shows that in 38 of 50 analyzed provinces fell prices during the third quarter of the year, which hints that what has started as a trend focused on Madrid and Barcelona begins to spread. The lower growth of the national economy and its reflection in job creation could be weighing down the demand for housing. Although the panorama has changed significantly, since Fotocasa they believe that price increases will resume again and the “evolution will remain positive”, la situación no se parece a la vivida tras el boom of 2007-2008.
In Spain, the price of second-hand housing experienced a quarterly drop in September -1% and put the price in 1.891 euros / m2, according to data from the Fotocasa Real Estate Index. This value is a -37% and a -22% below the Madrid and Catalonia averages that, in September, they are priced at 3.012 euros / m2 and 2.438 euro / m2, respectively.
Este cambio en la tendencia se debe a la political uncertainty Yet the economic slowdown. Durante este tercer trimestre se ha divisado una mayor propensión al ahorro de las familias en productos seguros de renta fija, which could be detrimental to investment in real estate, damaging demand. This process forces sellers to adjust their prices until demand and supply find a new equilibrium point again.. A recovery in the economy and the formation of a new government could dampen this downward trend in the housing market.
Según los datos que maneja Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Comission, the house price (both new and second hand) has been registering quarterly increases since 2015. However, in the last few quarters there has been some moderation
Annual rises are still alive
In the third quarter of 2019, Spain's values show slight and moderate increases and decreases. In just 12 months the price of housing in Spain rises a 2,3%, some 42 more euros per square meter. That is to say, for a house of 80 meters in Spain is being paid 151.249 euros in September 2019 (1.891 euros / m2) in front of 147.888 euros that was paid in September 2018 (1.849 euros / m2).
“We started the year with very strong increases in the price of the house offered on our website, which have been moderating as the year progressed. This trend will intensify in the last quarter as a consequence of the national and international economic context and political uncertainty., but the evolution will continue to be positive and very uneven according to the areas. Prices will continue to rise, but less, although in some areas those climbs will be more intense”, Explain Beatriz Toribio, director of Fotocasa studies.
En cuanto a los incrementos trimestrales de las Comunidades Autónomas, those that increase their price are: Andalusia (0,6%), Aragon (0,4%), The Rioja (0,4%) and Asturias (0,2%). On the other hand, the communities that drop the price in this third quarter are: Cataluña (-4,2%), Navarra (-3,5%), Galicia (-2,6%), Castilla la Mancha (-2,2%), Canary Islands (-2%), Valencian Community (-1,9%), Castilla y León (-1,7%), Estremadura (-1,5%), Cantabria (-1,3%), Murcia region (-1,2%), Madrid (-0,7%), Basque Country (-0,7%) and Balearic Islands (-0,6%).
Regarding the price ranking by communities, Madrid, who ranks first, It is the only one that overcomes the barrier of 3.000 euros, specifically you pay per square meter about 3.012 euros. The communities of Basque Country (2.794 euros / m2), Baleares (2.645 euros / m2) and Catalonia (2.438 euros / m2). On the other hand, the community with the cheapest price is Extremadura with 1.089 euros / m2, followed by Castilla la Mancha (1.103 euros / m2) and Murcia region (1.131 euros / m2).
In 38 of the 50 provinces analyzed lowers the price in the third quarter of 2019, according to him Fotocasa Real Estate Index. The steepest quarterly decline is recorded Navarra with a -3,5%, followed by Guadalajara (-3,1%), Santa Cruz of Tenerife (-3,1%), A Coruña (-2,9%), Segovia (-2,7%) and Ourense (-2,5%), among others. On the other hand, the province with the highest quarterly increase is Huesca with 8,9%. Malaga follows (3,2%), Zamora (1,9%) and Cuenca (1,4%), among others.
In 23 capital housing was cheaper three months ago
Regarding the provincial capitals, 27 experience quarterly declines in September 2019. The greatest decrease is recorded Guadalajara Capital with -2,6%. Follow him, Burgos Capital (-2,2%), Ourense Capital (-2,2%), Badajoz Capital (-2%), Lleida Capital (-1,6%), Murcia Capital (-1,6%), Segovia Capital (-1,6%), Pontevedra Capital (-1,5%), Tarragona Capital (-1,5%), Huelva Capital (-1,3%), Valencia Capital (-1,2%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife Capital (-1,2%), among others.
On the other hand, the provinces with increases are: Capital Basin (3,8%), Teruel Capital (2,8%), Zamora Capital (2,4%), Donostia – Saint Sebastian (2,1%), Vitoria ?? Gasteiz (1,7%), Seville Capital (1,6%), Ávila Capital (1,4%), Palma de Mallorca (1%), Malaga Capital (1%), Alicante / Alicante (1%), Logroño (1%), Salamanca Capital (0,7%), Lugo Capital (0,7%), Cádiz Capital (0,7%), Valladolid Capital (0,7%), Jaén Capital (0,5%), The Gran Canarian palms (0,5%), Toledo Capital (0,5%), A Coruña Capital (0,4%), Pamplona / Pamplona (0,3%), Bilbao (0,3%), Oviedo (0,1%), Granada Capital (0,1%).
The evolution of prices has cooled significantly in recent quarters, leading to small corrections in areas where the price of housing has risen the most. The situation is still very far from the price drops seen in 2012 and, for now, the trend does not seem to be going that way. A stabilization of the market is the scenario that manages the consensus of the experts.
[Source: The Economist]