The year of the pandemic closed with the highest rates of return on residential rental in the historical series, updated quarterly by the main real estate portals in Spain. Combining the data from the three major Spanish platforms, in december 2020 the average profitability of having a rented house reached the 6,9%, a percentage straddling the 6,3% of Floors, he 6,8% of Fotocasa and the 7,6% of Idealista and the largest of the series that part of 2007.

In this context, the government finalizes a law to, predictably, limit the rise in rental prices in stressed areas and update official data, stuck in a universe of real estate taken in 2006 that makes, for example, that the updated statistics of the Bank of Spain do not reflect this profitability record and are far removed from those offered by the portals.

Rental profitability, which is obtained by comparing the sale price per square meter in a certain area with the price that the owners ask for renting the same surface, is one more derivative of the consequences of the rise in prices, a trend that had already been around for years in Spain but that has been magnified and questioned mainly due to the health and economic crisis of Covid-19 and its effects on the world of work and on household income.

Thus, the Government is in full internal negotiations to shape the future Housing Law, a rule that, according to the programmatic agreement signed between PSOE and Unidas Podemos in 2019 and corroborated in October 2020, debería incluir un índice de precios para que las administraciones públicas pudiesen regular sus zonas tensionadas si así lo acordasen. Las fuertes divergencias entre los dos socios a la hora de encarar esta problemática no garantizan, However, that these points of the agreement will finally materialize. The last calendar set by PSOE and Unidas Podemos established, also, that the rule should reach the Council of Ministers in February, a term that the Executive already assumes as practically impossible considering that there is only one meeting left in the month and the positions remain far apart.

In the meantime, profitability seems to have peaked. The three great portals, that work with the data of their respective systems, They do not coincide when determining the gross benefit of having a rented house, but they do agree when drawing a common historical trend and confirming that the year 2020 it was the most profitable for the landlords.

In the opinion of the director of studies of the Pisos portal, Ferran Font, the high rates of return are due to the fact that during the year 2020, while the sale price remained relatively stable or even with some small drops, rents continued to rise gradually in most towns. Therefore, Add, until there is a general downward movement, “Like the one that they have already been able to start experiencing markets like Barcelona, Madrid, Malaga or Seville ", the country's average returns will remain high.

They also see it like this in Idealista, where they recall that at the end of last December the gross profitability in the main Spanish housing markets stood at much lower levels than the national average after the slight falls that began to be seen in these cities at the end of 2019 and that the coronavirus finished precipitating.

So, according to the data of this portal, Among the Spanish capitals, Lleida is the one that was most profitable at the end of last year, with a 8,7%. He was followed by Murcia (7,9%), Huelva (7,3%), Castellón de la Plana (7%) and Almería and Alicante (6,7%). However, the lowest returns were, entre otras ciudades, en San Sebastián (3,7%), Barcelona (4,5%), Palma (4,6%) and Madrid (4,9%).

For all this, y teniendo en cuenta que se espera que los precios del arrendamiento vayan cayendo, incluso alcanzado descensos del entorno del -10% en ciudades como Barcelona y Madrid, los expertos coinciden en aseverar que las rentabilidades brutas también vayan hundiéndose a medida que avance el año.

Baile de cifras

La foto que dibujan los tres grandes portales, prácticamente similar en cuanto a las tendencias, se aleja sin embargo del análisis de la rentabilidad bruta que ofrece el Banco de España, que sitúa el rendimiento del arrendamiento en 2020 en las cotas más bajas de los últimos ocho años, around the 3,7%. Casi la mitad que la media de los tres portales.

La razón, explica la nota metodológica del supervisor, se encuentra en que sus cálculos toman como partida el precio del alquiler medio de un mismo grupo de inmuebles desde 2006, obtenido de la encuesta sobre la vivienda en alquiler de los hogares en España del antiguo Ministerio de Fomento, que solo se va actualizando trimestre tras trimestre con la evolución del IPC de los alquileres. “Los portales describen la variación de precios de las nuevas viviendas que entran en el mercado, por eso las estadísticas no coinciden”, explican fuentes conocedoras de estos cálculos.

Esta discrepancia, prosiguen, “es la que ha motivado al Ministerio a trabajar en un índice nuevo de precios que tenga en cuenta en mayor medida el margen de vivienda nueva que entra al mercado”. La falta de información oficial, in fact, llevó al supervisor a tener que utilizar hace dos años los datos de Idealista a la hora de analizar en uno de sus informes la evolución de los precios del alquiler en España.

[Source: Five days]